Cut the tube. Cut a ring about 1.25 inches wide from the toilet paper tube.
Cut the rope. Wrap tape around the rope where you plan to cut, then cut through the tape to prevent fraying. Cut one piece about 26 inches and one about 18 inches. [CONFIRM lengths]
Wrap the ring. Glue one end of the longer rope to the cardboard ring. Wrap the rope around the ring four times, keeping the wraps snug, and glue down the end.
Start the leaf knot. With the shorter rope, bring the working end behind the long part of the rope to form a loop about the size you want the finished knot.
Wrap left, then right. Bring the end over and through the loop, making one full turn around the left side. Make the next full turn around the right side.
Fill the loop. Keep alternating left and right, tightening each turn before the next, until the loop is filled. Snug the knot and shape it with your fingers.
Attach the knot. Set the knot on top of the wrapped ring. Tuck one tail inside each side of the tube, glue the tails to the inside of the cardboard, and trim any extra.
Add the orange and bell. Push the wire through one corner of the knot, thread on the dried orange slice and the bell, twist the wire ends together, and trim.
Finish. Tie on a small velvet bow. Slide the napkin through the ring and tuck in the evergreen sprig and cinnamon stick.